Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 35.975861 42.614915 49.898586 58.451081 68.185363 78.886410 91.505487
2024-12-29 26.616576 35.520575 46.240982 59.959206 76.894484 96.956449 122.344360
2025-01-05 20.450826 30.026980 42.430263 59.375194 81.586863 109.349801 146.263200
2025-01-12 17.854965 28.309066 42.655584 63.271482 91.547006 128.320377 179.001905
2025-01-19 13.740344 23.624722 38.029801 59.821861 91.091007 133.370575 193.696595
2025-01-26 12.044341 22.138498 37.585333 61.929668 98.116673 148.533755 222.392294
2025-02-02 11.169278 21.752723 38.639582 66.186829 108.353135 168.562051 258.673126
2025-02-09 9.951317 20.570815 38.252131 68.110365 115.160436 183.979231 289.138254
2025-02-16 8.773909 19.245980 37.428025 69.179078 120.622105 197.601545 317.548134
2025-02-23 7.609753 17.735666 36.076375 69.191022 124.328657 208.686383 342.626406
2025-03-02 6.410357 15.935584 33.972357 67.682260 125.399648 215.707370 361.828024
2025-03-09 5.551595 14.664426 32.648019 67.338352 128.253527 225.499866 385.511911
2025-03-16 4.199119 12.148169 28.821169 62.492921 123.794190 224.479150 394.096022
2025-03-23 3.702550 11.478673 28.549953 64.207848 130.845949 242.548292 433.897678
2025-03-30 3.085094 10.354704 27.158276 63.598003 133.682819 253.794196 463.295421
2025-04-06 2.914696 10.342954 28.136442 67.722094 145.347370 280.366503 518.710021
2025-04-13 2.252616 8.794644 25.437597 64.071464 142.281364 281.637637 532.451940
2025-04-20 2.040074 8.490522 25.563622 66.302354 150.470803 302.754778 580.201917
2025-04-27 1.966254 8.600145 26.701263 70.805910 163.337954 332.681409 644.028037
2025-05-04 1.777188 8.281376 26.721875 72.839861 171.449089 354.470617 694.729409
2025-05-11 1.571607 7.842448 26.362830 73.969685 177.798182 373.337561 741.064632
2025-05-18 1.350986 7.273142 25.561320 73.982310 181.841376 388.134254 780.805362
2025-05-25 1.110672 6.532404 24.152276 72.387230 182.397293 396.438088 809.324699